By first narrowing down the universe of playable hands to 28-30% of all starting hands, we are able to reduce the possibility of future mistakes. However, having preflop strategy alone will not guarantee long-term success in Fixed Limit Holdem. One must demonstrate prudent decision making from the flop and beyond. Such a discipline requires effectively thinking about a hand on the flop. When taking a flop in Fixed Limit Texas Holdem, one should first think of the characteristics of their starting hand, where we compare our hand to the board. This comparison assists us in determining whether to continue in the hand, as well as how to proceed in the best and most effective manner possible.

What to Expect on the Flop

When the flop occurs, you can expect one of the following scenarios to occur:

First, the board could totally miss us. Supposing we entered the pot preflop with a medium pocket pair (pocket eights, for example). The board delivers overcards such as Ace – Nine – Jack. The characteristics of our middle pocket pair suggest we are beat and should not continue. Thus, we fold to the first sign of pressure.

The second possibility on the flop is that we flop a “second best hand,” such as middle pair on a board of King – Jack – Seven while holding a hand like Ace – Jack. Beginning poker players make the mistake of going to far with this hand on this particular board. If action checks to you, you may bet – however, look to abandon ship at the first sign of resistance – especially in a hand where many people saw the flop.

Thirdly, it is possible you flop the best hand, such as a flop of Seven – Ten – Two while holding pocket Jacks, or a hand like Ace Ten. You have the best hand now, but are somewhat vulnerable. The best course of action is to be the aggressor and bet, or raise in an attempt to narrow down the field and possibly take down the pot by terminating action with your aggression.

The fourth possibility is that you flop a set, or even a straight. When in this situation – your hand is not terribly vulnerable; however, you do not want to make the error of failing to build a pot. We wish to build big pots with big hands while leaving the small pots for small hands. When action comes to you, bet out. If players have already done you the favor and you are facing a two bet, you may alternate between calling and three betting.

Finally, you may have flopped a drawing hand, such as a four to a flush (Kh-Qh in the hole on a board of Ah – 6h – 9d). For drawing hands such as these, it is important to assess your options by counting your outs, as well as comparing your outs to the pot odds.

Basic Calculation of Outs on the Flop To determine the number of cards that will improve our hand (known as outs), we must add up the number of cards that will help us, being certain to not double count cards. For example, suppose we have Ace-King on a board of King – two – three. It makes sense we have the best hand. If we did not, however – we would need to count our outs to determine how many cards improve us to best hand. Suppose we know our opposing player holds 2-3, giving him two pair. We need either an Ace or a King to improve to best hand. There are three Aces that we have not yet seen, as well as two kings (we hold one king in our hand, and one has occurred on the flop). This gives us five outs.

Using the same logic, if we have a flush draw (meaning there are four cards between using our hole cards and the board that are of the same suit), we generally have nine outs, as there are nine suited cards left in the deck that may help us. An open-ended presents eight outs, while a gut-shot straight draw presents four outs.

If we hold a pocket pair, we have two outs to make a set. If we have a pair and a flush draw, we have nine outs from the flush, as well as two outs from the paired card and three outs from the non-paired card – giving us fourteen outs.

Turning Outs into Odds on the Flop Identifying and counting outs in poker is of importance. When translating outs into odds of hitting our draws or getting the card we are trying to hit, it is best that the basic odds of successfully drawing from the flop on be memorized.

The odds of making a flush by the river are roughly 2 to 1 on the flop.

The chances of making a straight by the river is about 2.25 to 1 if open ended, while about 5 to 1 if you have a gut shot straight draw.

If you have a pocket pair on the flop, the chances of hitting a set by the river are roughly 11 to 1.

The odds of making a pair when you have two unpaired cards that are overcards to the board (such as A-K on a board of 5-9-3) are roughly 3 to 1.

The keys to successful flop play is to play the flop is play when you hit, trying to build a pot, while folding when you miss the flop. Additionally, drawing hands should proceed with caution as pot odds deem such action appropriate.