The turn transitions the Fixed Limit Holdem game from the small betting round to the big betting round, as the bet size doubles in size.  The doubling of the bet on the turn in Fixed Limit Texas Holdem presents a situation where the odds to draw are not as rewarding as they were on the flop.  Moreover, with one card to come, those people who have not yet completed their draws see the chance of success decrease – as there is one card remaining.

With that in mind, often one can bet out on the turn from early position, or raise from late position to thin the field or to take down the pot when either a scare card falls (the board pairs or a draw completes, for example), or when a card that is not relevant to the logical board falls, such as a two of diamonds on a board of King hearts, Jack clubs, Eight spades.  Because there is only one card left, and the turn is the start of the big bet round, it is frequent that playing aggressively on the turn can result in folding the opposition.

Calculating Probability and Odds on the Turn

With the turn card out, we have one card to go.  This means that we have to calculate based on one, not two cards.  To determine probability on the turn, we multiply the number of outs by two.  So, in the case of the flush draw, we have a probability of improving to a flush of 18%, as the flush draw has nine outs, which we multiply by two.

To determine the odds of hitting our flush with one card to go, we must again go through the exercise of dividing 100 by the percentage (18%), which are approximately 5.  We again subtract one, and know the odds of hitting our flush with one card to go are roughly 4 to 1.  If the pot gives us better than 4 to 1 odds, we are correct in continuing by betting, raising, or calling as we see fit – mathematically speaking.

In fact, with one card to come, here are the odds for some of the more common draws hitting on the river, which you are best served committing to memory:

The odds of rivering your flush you have four parts to a flush is roughly 4 to 1.

Rivering an open-ended straight, when on an open-ended draw is roughly 5 to 1.

A four outer, such as when on a gut shot straight draw is 11-1 with one card to go.

Hitting a set on the river when holding a pocket pair gives you 22 to 1 odds.

Calculating Pot Odds in on the Turn Fixed Limit Holdem

Before the turn card, we recall these bets are small bets, as the bets double in size come the river.  The turn card introduces the big bet, which is double in size of those from the previous betting rounds.  To adjust our bet counting of the pot, simply divide the number of bets by two when the turn card comes, as this will correctly provide you with the size of bets relative to the betting round.  If the pot contained 12 bets on the flop, and the turn card comes out, the pot now contains six bets.  Now, when the player to our left bets into us, we have 7 to 1 odds to call.  If we are on our flush draw, we know that we have roughly a 4 to 1 chance to hit our flush with one card to go.  7 to 1 pays better than our 4 to 1 probability, so we can profitably continue in the hand.

How to Proceed on the Turn

Generally, because we have superior starting hand selection, we typically find ourselves in control of the pot – as the bettor, not the caller.  If in position and action has checked to us, we are often correct checking behind to take a free river card if we are still drawing.  If we are ahead in the hand, we are usually best betting or raising so to get money into the pot.  When facing a bet, if hitting our draw results in the best or nearly the best hand, we are well-suited calling or raising.  Regardless of the situation, however, we should always respect the pot odds as they compare to the odds of completing our draw on the river when we are not yet there.